GOOD MORNING! Amazon announced that it has deployed more than 1 million robots across its operations to automate repetitive tasks, improve efficiency and reduce delivery times. In approximately 2 years, the company is projected to have as many robots as human employees. It brings closer the idea that factories in the future will have only two employees: one person and a dog. The dog will be there to prevent the man from touching any buttons that control the machines or robots and the man’s job will be to feed the dog. The markets were whipsawed on Wednesday. It started with the ADP Private Employment Change Report unexpectedly declined in June as there was hesitancy to hire and reluctance to replace departing workers due to the uncertain economic outlook. Treasury yields did a drop-stop-pop on the report. The drop in yields was based on increased downside risk to today’s employment report. The eventual pop in yields was due to the inching forward of the Big Bill which would add to the fiscal deficit and require additional debt to finance it. Also weighing on the bond market was a Bloomberg article that said the Fed Independence Index (Who knew of such a thing?) fell to a new low. The White House announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam lifted the S&P to a new intra-day and closing record high.

     Due to the Independence Day holiday, a very busy economic calendar has been doubled and with an early market close ahead of a three-day weekend. The highlighted report is the June Employment report. This report is being much-hyped by the market as a pivotal report in setting a path for rate policy adjustment as for timing and amount of adjustments. The consensus forecast is for non-farm payrolls to have increased by 110k and the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.3%. There is a whisper number of 85k in added jobs and with President Trump calling for Powell’s resignation (the Presidents usually get an early peek at the report.) has the markets looking for a downside surprise. That has Treasury yields down in early trading. The data generator will continue with the latest weekly jobless claims, May’s trade balance service sector PMIs from S&P Global and ISM, and the final May factory durable and capital goods orders. The Treasury will be auctioning 77-day Cash Management Bills and 4- and 8-week T-bills. The compressed trading range will make for wild reactions to the data and positioning for a long weekend in a still-dangerous world, so buckle up. Happy 4th of July!