GOOD MORNING! Wash, rinse, repeat. The rise in the price of oil and war jitters moved the markets again. The yields on the short-to-intermediate maturity sector of the Treasury curve as traders pushed further out the timing of a Fed rate cut. The curve flattened as the 30-year T-bond auction saw decent demand. Rising yields and a delayed Fed put stocks on a slippery slope lower, with the benchmark equity indices down more than 1 and ½ percent. Economic data again took a backset to geo-politics.

       The beginning of this morning’s Focus was a jinx (Friday the 13th?) as the markets look calm in early trading. Treasuries, stock index futures and even oil are little changed. Things are not likely to stay stable with a deluge of data and going into a weekend in a messy world. Economic releases this morning includes personal income, spending, savings and PCE Deflators for January, an updated estimate of the final 2025 quarter’s GDP, preliminary January durable, capital goods orders, January’s Job Openings, Layoff Turnover Survey and the preliminary March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Only the last one listed will be considered timely and don’t be surprised if consumers’ outlook deteriorates.